UC Davis

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	102.0
Current RPI:	102
Expected SOS:	203
Current SOS:	203
Current Record:	20-10
Expected Record:	20-10
Current Conf Record:	13-5
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	50
Expected OOC SOS:	73

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-10	102.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Davis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	59-74	W	100%
11-15	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	58-62	W	100%
11-18	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	80-71	L	0%
11-21	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	N	64-47	W	100%
11-26	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	77-70	L	0%
11-29	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	56-51	W	100%
12-2	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	67-81	W	100%
12-6	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	71-67	W	100%
12-15	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	74-61	L	0%
12-19	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	88-73	L	0%
12-22	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	N	77-68	W	100%
12-23	Radford (128.0)	BSth	N	62-72	L	0%
1-4	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	64-53	W	100%
1-11	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	65-75	W	100%
1-13	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	85-70	L	0%
1-17	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	84-75	W	100%
1-20	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	77-72	L	0%
1-25	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	63-56	W	100%
1-27	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	80-56	W	100%
2-1	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	56-63	W	100%
2-3	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	104-105	W	100%
2-8	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	81-90	L	0%
2-10	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	66-68	L	0%
2-15	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	84-92	W	100%
2-17	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	54-71	W	100%
2-24	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	64-63	W	100%
3-1	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	70-59	W	100%
3-3	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	84-90	W	100%
3-8	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	N	70-66	W	100%
3-9	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	N	52-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Davis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Davis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Davis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Davis	BW	26.62	26.62	70.83	70.83	11.09	11.09
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	6.03	6.03	57.69	57.69	0.93	0.93
UC Riverside	BW	5.93	5.93	26.92	26.92	-2.74	-2.74
UC Irvine	BW	4.48	4.48	51.61	51.61	0.14	0.14
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.40	4.40	71.43	71.43	1.89	1.89
Long Beach St.	BW	4.36	4.36	44.83	44.83	-0.45	-0.45
Hawaii	BW	4.34	4.34	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Cal Poly	BW	4.29	4.29	25.93	25.93	-2.07	-2.07
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.26	4.26	15.38	15.38	-2.95	-2.95
Pacific	WCC	3.52	3.52	44.83	44.83	-0.36	-0.36
Northern Colorado	BSky	3.36	3.36	65.52	65.52	1.04	1.04
San Francisco	WCC	2.02	2.02	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	WAC	1.98	1.98	64.29	64.29	0.57	0.57
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.95	1.95	17.24	17.24	-1.28	-1.28
Nevada	MWC	1.88	1.88	78.79	78.79	1.08	1.08
Washington	P12	1.72	1.72	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Washington St.	P12	1.72	1.72	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Radford	BSth	1.72	1.72	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Lamar	Slnd	1.67	1.67	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Montana	BSky	0.49	0.49	77.42	77.42	0.27	0.27
Pepperdine	WCC	0.47	0.47	16.13	16.13	-0.32	-0.32
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.42	0.42	33.33	33.33	-0.14	-0.14
California	P12	0.40	0.40	25.81	25.81	-0.19	-0.19
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.35	0.35	84.85	84.85	0.24	0.24
Idaho St.	BSky	0.34	0.34	42.86	42.86	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho	BSky	0.32	0.32	68.97	68.97	0.12	0.12
Stanford	P12	0.30	0.30	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.27	0.27	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.27	0.27	24.14	24.14	-0.14	-0.14
Weber St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.24	0.24	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.24	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.22	0.22	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.21	0.21	88.24	88.24	0.16	0.16
Seattle	WAC	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.19	0.19	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
BYU	WCC	0.19	0.19	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.19	0.19	13.33	13.33	-0.14	-0.14
Arizona St.	P12	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Utah	P12	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Denver	Sum	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Valparaiso	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.03	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01